Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 02 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 5099 (+1249) 214639 (+27318) 8878 (+2417) 200662 (+23652)
Spain 9387 (+923) 104118 (+8195) 22647 (+3388) 72084 (+3884)
Italy 13155 (+727) 110574 (+4782) 16847 (+1118) 80572 (+2937)
United Kingdom 2352 (+563) 29474 (+4324) 135 (+0) 26987 (+3761)
France 4032 (+509) 56989 (+4861) 10935 (+1491) 42022 (+2861)
Germany 931 (+156) 77981 (+6173) 18700 (+2600) 58350 (+3417)
Iran 3036 (+138) 47593 (+2988) 15473 (+817) 29084 (+2033)
Netherlands 1173 (+134) 13614 (+1019) 250 (+0) 12191 (+885)
Belgium 828 (+123) 13964 (+1189) 2132 (+436) 11004 (+630)
Turkey 277 (+63) 15679 (+2148) 333 (+90) 15069 (+1995)
Sweden 239 (+59) 4947 (+512) 103 (+87) 4605 (+366)
Switzerland 488 (+55) 17768 (+1163) 2967 (+1144) 14313 (-36)
Brazil 242 (+41) 6880 (+1163) 127 (+0) 6511 (+1122)
Portugal 187 (+27) 8251 (+808) 43 (+0) 8021 (+781)
India 58 (+23) 1998 (+601) 148 (+25) 1792 (+553)
Indonesia 157 (+21) 1677 (+149) 103 (+22) 1417 (+106)
Ecuador 98 (+19) 2758 (+456) 58 (+0) 2602 (+437)
Austria 146 (+18) 10711 (+531) 1436 (+341) 9129 (+172)
Algeria 58 (+14) 847 (+131) 61 (+15) 728 (+102)
Ireland 85 (+14) 3447 (+212) 5 (+0) 3357 (+198)
Denmark 104 (+14) 3107 (+247) 894 (+893) 2109 (-660)
Canada 114 (+13) 9731 (+1140) 1736 (+494) 7881 (+633)
Romania 92 (+10) 2460 (+215) 252 (+32) 2116 (+173)
Poland 43 (+10) 2554 (+243) 56 (+49) 2455 (+184)
Peru 38 (+8) 1323 (+258) 394 (+0) 891 (+250)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 43875 (+5085) 853271 (+77937) 117751 (+16663)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 52620 ( +6947) 1026019 ( +122898) 139266 ( +19858)
Fri 03 April 2020 60624 ( +8004) 1165642 ( +139622) 162427 ( +23161)
Sat 04 April 2020 69845 ( +9221) 1324264 ( +158622) 189440 ( +27013)
Sun 05 April 2020 80469 ( +10624) 1504472 ( +180208) 220945 ( +31505)
Mon 06 April 2020 92709 ( +12240) 1709204 ( +204731) 257690 ( +36745)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 3312 (+7) 81554 (+36) 76238 (+186)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 3247 ( +0) 80971 ( +0) 74816 ( +99)
Fri 03 April 2020 3247 ( +0) 80971 ( +0) 74902 ( +86)
Sat 04 April 2020 3247 ( +0) 80971 ( +0) 74977 ( +75)
Sun 05 April 2020 3248 ( +0) 80972 ( +0) 75042 ( +65)
Mon 06 April 2020 3248 ( +0) 80972 ( +0) 75099 ( +57)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 9387 (+923) 104118 (+8195) 22647 (+3388)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 9891 ( +627) 109299 ( +6177) 24974 ( +2522)
Fri 03 April 2020 10423 ( +532) 114772 ( +5473) 27221 ( +2247)
Sat 04 April 2020 10863 ( +440) 119538 ( +4766) 29148 ( +1927)
Sun 05 April 2020 11220 ( +357) 123625 ( +4087) 30747 ( +1599)
Mon 06 April 2020 11504 ( +285) 127084 ( +3459) 32039 ( +1292)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 13155 (+727) 110574 (+4782) 16847 (+1118)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 13576 ( +587) 112586 ( +3184) 17422 ( +885)
Fri 03 April 2020 14101 ( +525) 115380 ( +2795) 18237 ( +815)
Sat 04 April 2020 14565 ( +464) 117814 ( +2434) 18979 ( +741)
Sun 05 April 2020 14970 ( +405) 119920 ( +2106) 19646 ( +667)
Mon 06 April 2020 15321 ( +351) 121731 ( +1811) 20240 ( +594)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 5099 (+1249) 214639 (+27318) 8878 (+2417)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 6428 ( +1362) 273497 ( +45403) 12099 ( +3033)
Fri 03 April 2020 8156 ( +1728) 327937 ( +54440) 16147 ( +4048)
Sat 04 April 2020 10349 ( +2193) 393214 ( +65277) 21549 ( +5402)
Sun 05 April 2020 13132 ( +2783) 471484 ( +78270) 28759 ( +7209)
Mon 06 April 2020 16663 ( +3531) 565334 ( +93850) 38380 ( +9622)

France

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 4032 (+509) 56989 (+4861) 10935 (+1491)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 5049 ( +806) 61058 ( +4913) 13986 ( +2362)
Fri 03 April 2020 6008 ( +959) 65885 ( +4827) 16828 ( +2842)
Sat 04 April 2020 7150 ( +1141) 70555 ( +4670) 20247 ( +3419)
Sun 05 April 2020 8508 ( +1358) 75006 ( +4451) 24360 ( +4114)
Mon 06 April 2020 10125 ( +1616) 79188 ( +4182) 29310 ( +4949)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 3036 (+138) 47593 (+2988) 15473 (+817)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 3015 ( +72) 53410 ( +4273) 18033 ( +1471)
Fri 03 April 2020 3078 ( +63) 58055 ( +4644) 19634 ( +1601)
Sat 04 April 2020 3132 ( +54) 63103 ( +5048) 21377 ( +1743)
Sun 05 April 2020 3179 ( +47) 68590 ( +5487) 23275 ( +1898)
Mon 06 April 2020 3219 ( +40) 74555 ( +5965) 25342 ( +2067)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 931 (+156) 77981 (+6173) 18700 (+2600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 1193 ( +231) 81401 ( +4201) 25463 ( +5505)
Fri 03 April 2020 1478 ( +286) 85110 ( +3709) 32486 ( +7023)
Sat 04 April 2020 1833 ( +354) 88333 ( +3223) 41445 ( +8960)
Sun 05 April 2020 2272 ( +439) 91095 ( +2762) 52876 ( +11431)
Mon 06 April 2020 2816 ( +544) 93434 ( +2339) 67459 ( +14583)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 2352 (+563) 29474 (+4324) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 2873 ( +570) 35972 ( +5484) 188 ( +15)
Fri 03 April 2020 3584 ( +711) 42443 ( +6471) 204 ( +16)
Sat 04 April 2020 4471 ( +887) 50077 ( +7634) 221 ( +17)
Sun 05 April 2020 5578 ( +1106) 59085 ( +9008) 240 ( +19)
Mon 06 April 2020 6958 ( +1380) 69712 ( +10628) 261 ( +21)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 239 (+59) 4947 (+512) 103 (+87)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 279 ( +49) 5102 ( +336) nan ( +nan)
Fri 03 April 2020 336 ( +57) 5436 ( +334) nan ( +nan)
Sat 04 April 2020 402 ( +66) 5766 ( +330) nan ( +nan)
Sun 05 April 2020 476 ( +74) 6088 ( +322) nan ( +nan)
Mon 06 April 2020 558 ( +82) 6400 ( +312) nan ( +nan)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 1173 (+134) 13614 (+1019) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 1496 ( +253) 14528 ( +874) 250 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 1801 ( +305) 15322 ( +794) 250 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 2168 ( +367) 16032 ( +710) 250 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 2610 ( +442) 16656 ( +624) 250 ( +0)
Mon 06 April 2020 3141 ( +532) 17198 ( +542) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 43 (+10) 2554 (+243) 56 (+49)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 49 ( +8) 2735 ( +206) nan ( +nan)
Fri 03 April 2020 58 ( +9) 2925 ( +191) nan ( +nan)
Sat 04 April 2020 70 ( +11) 3098 ( +173) nan ( +nan)
Sun 05 April 2020 83 ( +13) 3252 ( +154) nan ( +nan)
Mon 06 April 2020 99 ( +16) 3386 ( +134) nan ( +nan)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 488 (+55) 17768 (+1163) 2967 (+1144)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 549 ( +63) 17768 ( +495) 3776 ( +856)
Fri 03 April 2020 613 ( +64) 18175 ( +407) 4883 ( +1106)
Sat 04 April 2020 677 ( +63) 18506 ( +331) 6314 ( +1431)
Sun 05 April 2020 738 ( +61) 18772 ( +267) 8163 ( +1850)
Mon 06 April 2020 796 ( +58) 18986 ( +214) 10555 ( +2392)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 828 (+123) 13964 (+1189) 2132 (+436)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 1074 ( +223) 15618 ( +1333) 2694 ( +492)
Fri 03 April 2020 1356 ( +281) 16879 ( +1261) 3296 ( +602)
Sat 04 April 2020 1711 ( +355) 18047 ( +1168) 4033 ( +737)
Sun 05 April 2020 2159 ( +448) 19106 ( +1059) 4935 ( +902)
Mon 06 April 2020 2724 ( +565) 20048 ( +942) 6039 ( +1104)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.